Why Southeast Asian nations are hesitant to join major US-Philippine Balikatan drills
Given the rivalry between Washington and Beijing, joining the annual military exercise may risk being seen as picking the US, analysts say
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“To at least some Asean countries that have regarded the US as a key anchor of regional peace and security, Balikatan could come across as assurance of Washington’s commitment,” said Collin Koh, a senior fellow and coordinator of naval and maritime affairs projects at the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.
However, joining the live-fire drills or other combat exercises “could result in a conundrum” by appearing to align too closely with Washington, he said.
All five have recently forged a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) with the Philippines.
Those arrangements allow their militaries to send troops for exercises, but not maintain an indefinite rotational presence – unlike the US military agreements with Manila that allow Washington to deploy troops on a rotating basis inside Philippine camps.
Marine Colonel Dennis Hernandez, spokesman for the Balikatan-Philippine Joint Task Force, told reporters that “17,000 plus” troops would take part, though the final breakdown by country had yet to be determined.
Hernandez said the public should look not only at the number of troops deployed, but also at how much more complex the drills had become.
“The activity has exponentially grown not only on a specific domain but the five domains,” he said, referring to air, land, maritime, missile and cyber defence.
Canadian Armed Forces’ Navy Lieutenant Commander Craig Cook said Ottawa would send “more than 300”.
Observing vs joining
Hernandez also remained mum on the number of countries that would send military “observers”.
During last year’s Balikatan, Manila invited 19 states to send observers and 16 accepted – including Asean countries Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.
The gap between observing and joining was politically significant, Koh told This Week in Asia. “Of course, it’s one thing about sending observers but quite another about participating fully in the exercise.”
“Balikatan is perceived as a potential source of contention in the evolving Sino-US dynamics, and recent iterations were also taking place in northern Philippines, with undertones of implications on the Taiwan issue which is sensitive,” he said.
“Broadly speaking at least some Asean countries would be concerned about whether partaking in Balikatan could convey the impression that they’re part of a US-led containment camp against Beijing.”
Balikatan is perceived as a potential source of contention in the evolving Sino-US dynamics
Speaking for the US Joint Task Force, Marine Colonel Robert Bunn said the participating nations all “see the importance of stability in the region and also the importance of being able to operate together”.
“Again, whether it be for security operations or humanitarian assistance, those lessons that are learned through this exercise are applicable across the region, not just the Philippines … so the lessons that we learn working together have dramatic effects across the region.”
When asked by Associated Press whether the US would reduce the 5,000 troops and military assets that it sent last year, Bunn sidestepped the question, calling it “one of the largest deployments”.
“This region is important to us. As you know, the United States has its geographic combatant commands. We are represented under the auspices of Indo-Pacom [Indo-Pacific Command], and they help us focus our efforts to Balikatan,” he said.
Canada’s Cook added: “Our main focus is on interoperability and interchangeability, all in the aim of fostering a regional security and a free and open Indo-Pacific.”
Japan’s role will be among the most closely watched elements of this year’s exercise.
The coming drills would mark the first time Japanese forces “will be participating on the ground especially in the counter live-fire exercise where they will fire their Type 88 ground-to-surface missile sinking one of the ships during the sinking exercise”, Hernandez said.
According to the Japan Times on Tuesday, “Self-Defence Forces will deploy about 1,400 personnel, multiple warships and aircraft, and anti-ship missile systems” to Balikatan.
The Japanese defence minister himself would be observing this exercise from the shore, Hernandez said.